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Links to Explore:
Foundation
Foundation
and Empire
Second
Foundation
Foundation's
Edge
Prelude
to Foundation
Forward the Foundation
Foundation's
Fear (Second Foundation Trilogy) by Gregory Benford
Foundation
and Chaos (Second Foundation Trilogy) by Greg Bear
Foundation's
Triumph (Second Foundation Trilogy) by David Brin
Fukuyama
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Psychohistory:
Hari Seldon’s dead hand? Or is it Adam Smith's dead Hand?
The
purpose here? Provide some insight into what happened to Isaac Asimov's
PSYCHOHISTORY concept. As time progresses, more details will be
added. If you have some thoughts regarding the matter, please do communicate
these. Eventually, we'll discuss a serious theory based on the principles
hinted at by IA.
Some
definitions (on the web and beyond):
http://www.newearth.demon.co.uk/asimov/asht16.htm
Psychohistory: The
idea of a mathematical "Laws of Humanics" parallelling the Laws of Robotics
was first posited on Aurora by Giskard Reventlov and Han Fastolfe, though
both realised that it was well beyond existing knowledge. It did not
resurface until the Galactic Empire was in decline when, at the Decennial
Convention on Trantor, Hari Seldon presented a paper of the theoretical
potential of psychohistory as a mathematics of social change, dealing
with the reactions of very large human populations to social and economic
stimuli. This was siezed upon by various factions as a means of furthering
their own political ends, but it was Daneel Olivaw, then acting the
role of Eto Demerzel, Chief of Staff to Cleon I, who encouraged Seldon
to develop psychohistory as a means of securing a more humane galaxy
after the inevitable fall of the Empire,...
....
Psychohistory had two fundamental axioms; that the number of people
to whom it was being applied should be large enough for a statistical
treatment of them to be valid, and that humanity should not know the
results of the application of psychohistory before the results were
achieved. It was not until after Golan Trevize had intuitively decided
in favour of Galaxia, and met Daneel Olivaw, that he recognised the
hitherto unknown inherent weakness of psychohistory, that it only held
as long as there was only one intelligent species in the galaxy.
http://www.wikipedia.com/wiki/psychohistory
Psychohistory was
also the name of a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy
universe, which combined history, psychology and mathematical statistics
to create a (nearly) exact science of the behavior of very large populations
of people, such as the Galactic Empire. Asimov used the analogy of a
gas, where whilst the motion of a single molecule is very difficult
to predict, the mass behavior of the gas can be predicted to a high
level of accuracy.
http://www.psychohistory.com/
Psychohistory, the
science of historical motivation, combines the insights of psychotherapy
with the research methodology of the social sciences to understand the
emotional origin of the social and political behavior of groups and
nations, past and present. The center of psychohistorical research around
the globe is The Institute for Psychohistory, which is headquartered
in New York City and has 18 branches in other countries. The Institute
is chartered by the State of New York as a not-for-profit educational
corporation, the Association for Psychohistory, Inc., and for the past
28 years has published The Journal of Psychohistory, various books by
The Psychohistory Press, and has been affiliated with the International
Psychohistorical Association, which holds an annual convention. Its
director is Lloyd deMause, whose work (see below for full texts) is
used in most college courses in psychohistory.
from: Organization, Volume 6(4): 591-608, 1999.
Learning from Foundation:
Asimov’s Psychohistory and the Limits of Organization Theory
Nelson Phillips and Stelios Zyglidopoulos
McGill University and Erasmus University
a paper on on metanarratives
and their applicability to organizational realities.
‘PSYCHOHISTORY
. . . Gaal Dornick, using non-mathematical concepts, has defined psychohistory
to be that branch of mathematics which deals with the reactions of human
conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli . . . Implicit
in all these definitions is the assumption that the human conglomerate
being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatment.
The
necessary size of such a conglomerate may be determined by Sheldon’s
First Theorem . . . A further necessary assumption is that the human
conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order that
its reactions be truly random . . . The basis of all valid psychohistory
lies in the development of the Sheldon functions which exhibit properties
congruent to those of such social and economic forces . . . ENCYCLOPEDIA
GALACTICA.’ (Asimov, 1967: 16)
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surprises
.... We didn't find discussion or extensive references to
one of the key (non Asimov) novels that uses Psychohistory
as its main tool ... This is of course In
the Country of the Blind by Michael Flynn.
C.
Ward, in an amazon review, writes "In the Country of the Blind
is a tense, complex, exciting conspiracy thriller, highly recommended
to all fans of suspense fiction, secret history, alternate history,
and science fiction.
In the 19th
century, the British scientist Charles Babbage designed an "analytical
engine," a working computer that was never built--or so the world
believes. Sarah Beaumont, an ex-reporter and real estate developer,
is investigating a Victorian-era Denver property when she finds
an ancient analytical engine. Sarah investigates her astonishing
discovery and finds herself pursued by a secret society that has
used Babbage computers to develop a new science, cliology, which
allows its practitioners to predict history--and to control history
for its own purposes. And it will stop at nothing to preserve
its secret mastery of human destiny.
Michael Flynn
is one of best and most interesting of the modern hard-SF writers,
combining rigorous extrapolation with skilled prose and strong
characterization. In the Country of the Blind is his first
novel, but it was somewhat overlooked when it appeared in 1990,
perhaps because it debuted as a paperback original. Now Tor has
reissued the book in hardcover, the format it deserves. This edition
has been slightly revised, and it includes, as an afterword, Flynn's
essay "An Introduction to Cliology," which plausibly explains
the intriguing science the author has created in this novel."
However --
Looking for CLIOLOGY yields this fascinating find ... authored
by Michael Beck
Cliology
"AI-based nanosurviellance, which became the basis of an exact
historical recordtaking, and later of simulation of conditions
for which there were not any direct records
Cliology is
the study of history taken to the next level. With the coming
of nanotechnology, it became possible for the first time to truly
surveil an entire populace and to store all the data gathered
permanently. Public reaction and fears kept this from coming to
pass, until the nanoswarms came. Constant surveillance was necessary
to survive in the space colonies, where a tiny leak or nanotech
outbreak could spell disaster. Even after the crisis passed, the
fear remained and no one ever really disbanded the constant surveillance,
which humanity carried with it throughout the First Federation
Era and eventually to the stars.
With the coming
of picotech AIs, it became possible to correlate all that stored
data and to analyze it for trends, and cliology was born. Whereas
history derives social trends and events from primary source documents
and such things as diaries, cliology has a record of every single
interaction that ever took place and can therefore make incredible
analyses of events. The records do not always exist--many primitive
worlds lost the technology, some religions such as the Universal
Church don't like it, and you can't surveil the higher order AIs.
All the same, cliology has transformed how people view their pasts." http://www.orionsarm.com/eg/c/Cl-Cn.html
The cliology discussion
above of course is removed from both Asimov's and Flynn vision
of psychohistory, but it is an interesting approach. Certainly
it can stimulate some thinking.
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Where
do we see more discussion of psychohistory?
Another search yielded the following ... please note, the listing
doesn't imply endorsement or non-endorsement ... simply that the
site appeared in a metasearch tool.
Psychohistory
Was Hari Seldon pulling our leg?
Psychohistory: Was Hari Seldon pulling our leg? Note: This essay
is based entirely on the first Foundation trilogy. The later books
modify our picture of both psychohistory and certain key events
in galactic history. But the original trilogy stood
http://www.zompist.com/psihist.html
Psychohistory
- a game of life and death set in 1792.
History, science, litreature and psychology combined in a free
educational game. This is a major project for intelligent students
(15+), and discerning adults. It also combines unique mysteries,
lateral thinking, puzzles, role playing, literature an
http://www.spot.com.au/schools/bountygame
Isaac
Asimov
Comprehensive collection of resources pertaining to Asimov.
http://www.asimovonline.com/
Clio's
Psyche
quarterly publication which studies psychohistory.
http://www.cliospsyche.com/
SF
Site Featured Review: Foundation's Fear
A review by Steven Silver of the author's novel that takes place
in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe.
http://www.sfsite.com/03b/foun29.htm
Professor
Howard Schwartz's Papers
Anti-Feminist Psychohistory Papers.
http://www.sba.oakland.edu/faculty/schwartz/Papers.htm
Foundation
and Chaos
A review of the author's 1998 novel written in Isaac Asimov's
Foundation universe.
http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Rampart/2547/skys.htm
Psychohistory
Information and Links
KeyWorlds.com's collection of Psychohistory sites and links.
http://www.keyworlds.com/p/psychohistory.htm
Basic
Conspiracism 101
Public Eye web page from Political Research Associates provides
in-depth information, analysis and news about Right Wing threats
to democracy and
http://www.publiceye.org/b_conspi.html
Allscifi
Isaac Asimov Spotlight
Critical reviews of Asimov's leading Foundation and Robot novels,
including discussions of themes in his works.
http://www.allscifi.com/Topic.asp?TopicID=12
Planetary
Survival and Consciousness Evolution: Psychological Roots of Human
Violence
ABSTRACT: The two most powerful psychological forces in human
history have been without doubt violence and greed. However, the
current global situation has amplified the consequences involved.
More pe
http://www.primalspirit.com/Grof_PlanetarySurvival_art.htm
Accidents
waiting to happen
An analysis of political events and psychological climate
in the UK Government from April 1998 and forecast to September
2000, based on trauma or change in 6 policy areas.
http://www.eoslifework.co.uk/govtran2k.htm
William
Gibson Bibliography / Mediagraphy
Complete William Gibson bibliography; not just the books, but
his articles, short stories, audio books, and related media
http://www.slip.net/~spage/gibson/biblio.htm
preface
FOUNDATIONS OF PSYCHOHISTORY
Psychohistory is the science of historical motivation -- no more,
no less. It is my hope that this book will provide the theoretical
foundations for the new science of psychohistory
http://www.psychohistory.com/htm/preface.htm
HIST251
- World History: A Psychohistory of the Modern World
Academic Year 2001/2002 World History: A Psychohistory of the
Modern World HIST 251 SP In this lecture-discussion course, we
will explore the
http://www.wesleyan.edu/wesmaps/course0102/hist251s.htm
Center
for the Study of Mind and Human Interaction
An interdisciplinary center that practices "preventive medicine"
in the widest sense, CSMHI studies large-group dynamics and issues
such as ethnic tension, war, peace, and diplomacy. Recent and
upcoming events, faculty, and history of group.
http://hsc.virginia.edu/csmhi
Encyclopedia
Galactica - Psychohistory - Contents
Tell me when this page is updated Psychohistory Definition Assumptions
Psychohistorical Theorems Characters | Galactography | Robotics
| Sociology | Space Travel | Timeline | Chimerical | Contents
Copyright ©1997-9 Mike Carlin Last Modified:
http://members.tripod.com/TerminusCity/psycho
David
E. Stannard, Shrinking History
Bactra Review: Occasional and eclectic book reviews by Cosma Shalizi
53 Shrinking History On Freud and the Failure of Psychohistory
by David E. Stannard Oxford University Press, 1980 A Strange Illusion
of the Recent Past Psychohistory --- the
http://www.santafe.edu/~shalizi/reviews/shrinking-history
Frontier
Organizations on the Web A major list of
futuristic organizations in the areas of future studies, philosophy,
personal and social liberation, and advanced technology.
http://www.lucifer.com/~sasha/org.html
Deutsche
Gesellschaft für Psychohistorische Forschung
http://www.psychohistorie.de/
The
Unconscious: A Perspective from Sociohistorical Psychology
Social psychologist specializing in cultural psychology, cross-cultural
psychology, activity theory, Vygotsky, social science research
methodology, qualitative methodology, cross-cultural counseling,
psychobiology, psychological anthropology, social
http://www.humboldt1.com/~cr2/uncon.htm
Psychohistory
In the same way that psychology was extended to cover groups,
producing the science of mob psychology, the idea of psychohistory
is to extend the idea even further to cover the sweeping changes
in group psychology over time to try and use the past and the
present to anticipate the general path of the future.
http://www.xyroth-enterprises.co.uk/psychist.htm
Psychohistory
: how could it be done ?
The modern science of psychohistory began as a literary invention
of Isaac Asimov. He defined it as a branch of mathematics dealing
with the overall reactions of large groups to given stimuli under
given conditions : the prediction of social and political change.
http://www.objectivethought.com/articles/psychohistory.html
Unit
Nine Section Three p 1
History - Unit 9 Section 3 Page 1/4 Topic: Psychohistory &
Biography One approach to biography is to understand the psychology
of the historical personage. This section will explore the idea
that both explicit psychohistorical biographies and so-called
regular biographies both attempt to understand the personality
of the figure being studied. The section below discusses the field
of psychohistory, by historian-psychoanalyst Peter Loewenberg.
The second section and third are explicit psychobiographies by
Freud and Erikson. The final section is a highlight on the childhood
of Lyndon Johnson by Robert Caro, that illustrates most writers
do attempt some form of psychological analysis.
http://www.lcsc.edu/SS150/u9s3p1.htm
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Thinking about the
future? Think about the recent book by Fukuyam ...
Our Posthuman Future by Francis Fukuyama is the latest
by one of the more significant comtemporary thinkers.
COLIN McGINN in
a recent New York Times Review writes: "Today, however, we are
faced with a new phase in the powers of human technology; we are on
the verge of discovering and implementing an alternative to evolution
itself -- direct intervention in the genetic process. This is one of
the main subjects of Francis Fukuyama's ''Our Posthuman Future,'' a
timely, thoughtful and well-argued contribution to an important subject.
Fukuyama,... discusses cloning, germ-line genetic engineering,
stem cell research, neuropharmacology, anti-aging medicine. His basic
concern is the potential for violations of human nature that spring
from the new biotechnology. Here science, politics and philosophy intersect,
as we try to negotiate the prospect of designer babies, strapping nonagenarians,
interspecies hybrids and the like."
Scientific American
states "Fukuyama contends that we need institutions with enforcement
powers "that will discriminate between those technological advances
that promote human flourishing, and those that pose a threat to human
dignity and well-being." Apart from cloning, regulation is required
for preimplantation diagnosis and screening, germ-line engineering,
the creation of human chimeras and the production of new psychotropic
drugs"
Clearly Fukuyama
is one peering at Future's Edge ... he may well be onto a great many
insights that could save us from some serious problems. What do
you think?
about Francis F.
... According to his own words, Francis Fukuyama is Bernard Schwartz
Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School
of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University.
His " The End of History and the Last Man ", was published
by Free Press in 1992 and has appeared in over twenty foreign editions
His most recent book, Our Posthuman Future: Consequences
of the Biotechnology Revolution, was published by Farrar, Straus, and
Giroux in April 2002. Fukuyama received his Ph.D. from
Harvard in Political Science, was a member of the Political Science
Department of the RAND Corporation, a member of the Policy Planning
Staff of the US Department of State, (ome of the most influential organizations
at state) a Deputy Director for European political-military affairs,
and a member of the US delegation to the Egyptian-Israeli talks
on Palestinian autonomy. He currently serves as a member
of the President’s Council on Bioethics.
Other areas to explore
include:
Principles
of Forecasting - A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (International
Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Volume 30)
-- by J. Scott Armstrong (Editor); Hardcove
Understanding Psychohistory
implies understanding personality and motivation, dominance, self-esteem
and other personal psychologies. The master of the philosophy/psychology
of motivation is Abraham Maslow.
It would greatly benefit you to explore is pyramid / hierachy
of needs leeding to self-actualization.
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