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Introduction
The Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force, General
Ronald R. Fogleman, tasked the Air University at Maxwell AFB, AL to look 30
years into the future to identify the concepts, capabilities and technologies
the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force
in the 21st century.
The Air University commander led a team of students and faculty from the Air
University's Air War College and Air Command and Staff College; scientists
and technologists from the Air Force Institute of Technology, located at Wright-Patterson
AFB, OH; Air Force Academy and AFROTC cadets from around the country; and
selected academic and business leaders in the civilian community across the
nation in the 10-month effort to meet General Foglemans tasking.
The resulting study is called Air Force 2025 or 2025
for short. The team's findings were briefed to General Fogleman in June
1996 and to the Secretary of the Air Force, Dr. Sheila Widnall, in July 1996.
The 2025 study was subsequently published in a collection of
white papers consisting of an executive summary and 41 individual papers,
totaling more than 3,300 pages of text.
Alternate Futures
Study participants used a forecasting technique known as alternate
futures to help them envision an array of future worlds in which the U.S.
must be able to survive and prosper in the year 2025. The 2025 team
studied the works of respected futurists, then identified their own factors
or drivers of change in the future. More than 100 individual drivers were
considered. Ultimately the three drivers most relevant in terms of structuring
the environment affecting U.S. security in the next century were chosen.
American World View. The U.S. perspective of the world which
determines its willingness and capability to interact with the rest of the
world, and ranges from domestic to global.
TeK. The differential rate of growth, proliferation, leverage,
and vitality of scientific knowledge and technical applications and their
consequences. This driver ranges from constrained to exponential. When constrained,
evolutionary changes are occurring and it is possible for nations or groups
to preserve technological monopolies and advantages. When change is exponential,
revolutionary technological changes are possible and nations or groups are
unable to preserve technological leverage, monopolies and advantages.
World Power Grid. The generation (sources -- social, political,
economic, military, etc.), transmission (directions, resistance, speed), distribution
(number and types of actors) and control (influence, leverage) of power throughout
the world. This driver ranges from concentrated to dispersed. The world power
grid is concentrated when a few actors have the means or will to influence
others and dispersed when many actors can effectively influence world events.
The 2025 team used the creative but disciplined
alternate futures procedure to describe various plausible future worlds, each
separate and distinct, and each offering different security and planning challenges.
In the first world, the U.S.'s military might is constrained by many world
players with other forms of power. A second world depicts the extreme impacts
of a future dominated by multinational corporate giants. A third world is
a scary future in which information and biogenetic technology is dispersed,
giving individuals and small groups untold power. In a fourth world, the U.S.
loses its status as a superpower to an Asian colossus. A fifth future envisions
a world marked by fundamental changes in the social structure, environment
and the international security system, making it difficult for the United
States to determine how best to exert its power and influence. The final world
depicts how a major conflict in 2015 could shape events in 2025.
Concept Generation
The 2025 team sought ideas worldwide via the
internet about future military capabilities. The group synthesized the best
ideas into white papers focusing on specific military tasks. Using the six
alternate futures as a backdrop, the team then evaluated these concepts to
determine which of the 25 emerging technologies and 40 separate systems envisioned
by the 2025 team had the most merit. Each of these capabilities
and technologies were evaluated in the context of categories airmen are familiar
with today -- awareness, reach, and power -- to draw conclusions about their
usefulness to airmen in the world envisioned in 2025. The ten capabilities
and six high-leverage technologies listed below emerged from this analysis
as the best investments to ensure the United States continued air and space
dominance in the future.
TOP SYSTEMS
- Global Information Management System
- Sanctuary Base
- Global Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting System
- Global Area Strike System
- Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicle
- Space High Energy Laser
- Solar High Energy Laser
- Reconnaissance Unmanned Air Vehicle
- Attack Microbots
- Piloted Single Stage Space Plane
HIGH LEVERAGE TECHNOLOGIES
- Data Fusion
- Power Systems
- Micromechanical Devices
- Advanced Materials
- High Energy Propellants
- High Performance Computing
TRENDS
The 2025 study also highlighted five
trends, listed below:
- Humans will move from being more in the cockpit to being more in the loop.
- The medium for air force operations will move from the air and space toward
space and air.
- Development responsibilities for critical technologies and capabilities
will move from government toward industry.
- Influence will increasingly be exerted by information more than bombs.
- Military education will move from being rigid to responsive.
Conclusions
Preparing now for the military challenges of the 21st century is central to our national security. The keys to preserving the military security of the United States are the integration of information technologies with air and space capabilities, and the connectivity for distributed, demand-driven systems. Having these capabilities produces what the 2025 team termed Vigilant Edge. Investments in technologies which enhance vigilance, decision making capabilities and communication architectures will help ensure a future, full-service Air Force capable of providing a true Vigilant Edge for America.