I. TOP TEN TRENDS
from FUTURE SURVEY, Fall 2004
The following trends from the July, August, and September
issues of Future Survey have been selected by editor Michael
Marien as authoritative statements on important issues shaping
the future:
• ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT GROWING.
"The human ecological footprint is still increasing despite
progress made in technology and institutions…many crucial
sources are emptying or degrading, and many sinks are filling
up or overflowing…we are much more pessimistic about
the global future than we were in 1972."
—Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers,
and Dennis Meadows in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
(FS 26:7/301)
• HOPE IN DECLINE. "Over the last
three decades a major cultural shift has taken place in the
attitudes of Western societies toward the future. Optimism
has given way to a sense of ambiguity…(which) threatens
to stifle hope at a personal as well as a social level."
—Theologians Miroslav Volf and William
Katerberg in The Future of Hope (FS 26:9/415)
• NEW NUCLEAR
WEAPONS. "Nuclear scientists are actually designing, developing,
testing, and constructing new nuclear weapons at an annual
cost of $5 billion over the next 10-15 years."
—Dr. Helen Caldicott in The New
Nuclear Danger (FS 26:9/421)
• BIRD FLU.
"The recent appearance and spread of 'bird flu' across Asian
poultry populations has raised concerns that a devastating
new influenza pandemic is imminent…should the bird flu
virus evolve to a form that readily infects humans, widespread
loss of life is predicted."
—Tyler Kokjohn et al. in WFS
2004 Conference Volume (FS 26:9/446)
• RESPONSE
TO AIDS. In the past three years, "the essential ingredients
for a global response have coalesced: cheaper drugs, high-level
political will, new money to pay for treatment, and growing
grassroots muscle to push governments to follow through on
their promises."
—Anne-Christine D'Adesky on the race to treat global AIDS (FS
26:9/448)
• SURPLUS MALES IN CHINA
AND INDIA. "The masculinization of Asia's sex ratios is
one of the overlooked megatrends of our time, a phenomenon
that may very likely influence the course of national and
perhaps even international politics in the 21st
century."
—Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer
in Bare Branches (FS 26:7/333)
• SUSTAINABLE
FOREST MANAGEMENT. "In recent years, despite high rates
of deforestation in many regions, progress in implementing
sustainable forest management around the world has been steady
and encouraging."
—FAO report, State of the World's
Forests 2003 (FS 26:7/305)
• WORKFORCE
TRENDS IN U.S. The US workforce in the next 10-15 years
will continue to grow, but at a much slower rate, with greater
workforce participation by the elderly, the disabled, and
women with children.
—RAND report on The 21st
Century at Work (FS 26:8/379)
• TRANSPORTATION
INNOVATION. "University communities are at the leading
edge in transportation innovation, developing new approaches
that may have broad application, from central cities to suburban
corporate campuses."
—Will Toor and Spenser Havlick in Transportation & Sustainable
Campus Communities (FS 26:7/349)
• NOVEL FUTURES: RAPID GROWTH.
"For the overwhelming preponderance of human history,
humans have lived in societies that were characterized by
80% continuities, 15% cycles, and only 5% novelties at best.
Now I believe the figures are reversed: 80% of our futures
may be novel, 15% cyclical, and only 5% continuous with the
past and present."
—Prof. Jim Dator, Hawaii Center for
Futures Studies (FS 26:7/317)
II. TOP TEN FORECASTS from FUTURE SURVEY, Fall 2004
The following forecasts from the July, August, and September
issues of Future Survey have been selected by editor
Michael Marien as authoritative statements on significant probable
developments that deserve wide attention.
• WORLD POPULATION IN 2050. The
human population is projected to grow from 6.4 billion as
of mid-2004 to 7.9 billion in 2025 (24% growth) and 9.3% in
2050 (45% growth).
—Carl Haub, Population Reference
Bureau (FS 26:9/401)
• AGING
SOCIETIES. "Fiscal pressures associated with aging societies
are set to intensify over the next few years, and even more
so beyond…deficits and debts are on an explosive path
in most large OECD countries, as well as in many smaller ones."
—OECD Economic Outlook, 2004/1
(FS 26:8/392)
• GREATER
TRANSPARENCY. Pervasive computing and documentation will
ultimately make all things transparent in all public and private
enterprises, with total transparency finally becoming international
law in 15-20 years.
—David Pearce Snyder on "Five Meta-Trends
Changing the World" (FS 26:7/326)
• NORTH-SOUTH
DIVIDE. "It is probable that, as of 2025, the North-South
divide in the world-system will not be significantly reduced;
indeed, it might be quite enlarged."
—Immanuel Wallerstein on the relative
decline of the US in the world (FS 26:9/411)
• AL QAEDA'S
NEXT ATTACK. "I write this book with a pressing certainty
that al Qaeda will attack the continental US again, that its
next strike will be more damaging than that of 9/11, and could
include use of weapons of mass destruction…this war has
the potential to last beyond our children's lifetimes and
to be fought mostly on US soil."
—"Anonymous" (CIA analyst Michael Scheuer) on Imperial Hubris
(FS 26:9/417)
• AL QAEDA'S LONG-TERM PROGRAM.
The al Qaeda network is involved in a long-term program to
create a wider and more coherent Islamic world. "Already underway
for a decade, with another decade in prospect before it might
be achieved, it is part of a much longer strategy that might
stretch over half a century."
—Prof. Paul Rogers of Bradford University,
UK (FS 26:9/418)
• GLOBAL
FASCISM AHEAD? "The dangers of global fascism cannot be
discounted as imaginary or alarmist."
—Prof. Richard A. Falk in The
Declining World Order: America's Imperial Geopolitics (FS
26:7/316)
• FIBER
FARMS. A few very large international corporations will
increasingly dominate global markets in wood products. They
will move toward fiber farms of intensively managed engineered
trees grown on short rotations. These fiber farms "will certainly
have the capacity to meet and grossly exceed global needs
for bulk wood fiber for the next century."
—David Lindermayer and Jerry Franklin on forest sustainability
(FS 26:7/306)
• IMPACT OF "NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND.
NCLB systems for evaluating public schools place great score-boosting
pressures on teachers, usually followed by unsound classroom
instruction. Many students "will receive a far worse education
than they would otherwise be receiving," and NCLB will implode
in several years.
—UCLA assessment expert W. James
Popham (FS 26:89/370)
• MONSTER
QUAKE IN MIDWEST? The probability of another huge quake
in the New Madrid Seismic Zone in Missouri, similar to the
three quakes of 1811-1812, is roughly 20% between now and
2100. It could incur a cost of $1 trillion, probably bankrupting
some state and local governments.
—Jake Page and Dartmouth earth scientist Charles Officer on The
Big One (FS 26:7/311).
III. TOP TEN PROPOSALS from Future Survey, Fall 2004
These preferable futures for a better society or a better
world, from the July, August, and September issues of Future
Survey, have been selected as exemplary visions worthy of
consideration:
• BREAKTHROUGH SCENARIO. An ideal
scenario for the 2005-2020 period, describing popular movements
for peace, reform of the world monetary system, more equitable
distribution of recourses, widespread government and corporate
reform, etc.
—Ervin Laszlo, Global Citizen's
Handbook (FS 26:9/404)
• A FUTURE
WORTH CREATING. Eradicating disconnectedness in the global
economy is "the defining security task of our age…by
expanding the connectivity of globalization, we increase peace
and prosperity worldwide…making globalization truly global…(is)
a future worth creating."
—Defense strategist Thomas P.M. Barnett,
The Pentagon's New Map (FS 26:9/407)
• OUSTING
DICTATORS BY 2025. A plan to get rid of the last 45 dictators
in the world by 2025, because democracies provide more freedom
and better governance. "It is wrong to stand by and do nothing
when people anywhere on Earth are being brutally treated by
the despots who rule them."
—Freedom House VP Mark Palmer, Breaking the Real Axis of Evil
(FS 26:7/321)
• COMMUNITARIAN APPROACH
TO INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. A new layer of governance
is needed, but one that differs from the neo-conservative
and hyper-liberal views. Emphasis is needed on enhancing community
building and on a convergence of interests.
—GWU Prof Amitai Etzioni, From
Empire to Community (FS 26:7/320)
• STATE-BUILDING.
"How to promote governance of weak states, improve their democratic
legitimacy, and strengthen self-sustaining institutions…(is)
the central project of contemporary international politics…because
weak or failed states are the source of many of the world's
most serious problems."
—Francis Fukuyama on governance and
world order in the 21st century (FS 26:7/322)
• ANTI-TERRORISM
STRATEGY. A three-dimensional strategy is proposed: attack
terrorists and their organizations, prevent growth of Islamist
terrorism, and protect against and prepare for terrorist attacks
on the US.
—The 9/11 Commission Report (FS 26:9/416)
• GIRL'S EDUCATION. Investing
in girl's education is "a strategy that will jump-start all
other development goals." There is no tool for development
that is more effective.
—UNICEF Director Carol Bellamy, State
of the World's Children 2004 (FS 26:8/397)
• RETIRING
RETIREMENT. "The concept of retirement is outdated and
should be put out to pasture in favor of a more flexible approach
to ongoing work—one that serves both
employer and employee."
—Aging expert Ken Dychtwald in Harvard
Business Review (FS 26:8/386)
• REDESIGNING
CITIES. Numerous proposals for redesign of neighborhoods,
transport, commercial corridors, historic districts, parks,
and public spaces to produce a more livable urban environment.
—Jonathan Barnett, U of Pennsylvania
Prof of City and Regional Planning (FS 26:7/339)
• NATURAL
STEP FOR COMMUNITIES. Profiles accomplishments of 60 Swedish
communities that employed the Natural Step Approach toward
sustainability.
—Sara James and Torbjorn Lahti on how cities and towns can change
(FS 26:7/341)
