INTRODUCTION
TO FUTURE STUDIES
Dr. Linda Groff & Dr. Paul Smoker
RELEVANT
TOPICS:
Introduction/Overview:
Why Studying the Future and Change is Important
Change
is happening at an ever faster rate today--driven partly by technological
changes leading to changes in all other areas of our lives, and
by the increasing interdependence between countries and peoples
today, as well as the decentralization of societies and institutions
within countries (also furthered by information technologies today).
The end of the Cold War is also changing political and economic
borders, systems, and alignments, as everyone seeks to become part
of a global economy and society, while still maintaining national,
ethnic, and cultural identities and meaning. While the danger of
all-out nuclear war between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. (now Russia and
fourteen other former Republics of the Soviet Union) has greatly
receeded, with the end of the Cold War, nuclear terrorism remains
a danger, and other issues, such as sustainable development and
preservation of the environment, have gained greater ascendancy.
This has made it necessary for governments, businesses, organizations,
and people to better understand change and the future, since we
will all be living and working in a future world that promises to
be different from today in significant ways. When people better
understand change, they also often see more opportunities for their
lives and ways to better positively influence the future that is
being created.
Brief
History of the Future Studies Field
While
there have always been futurists, in the sense of people who looked
to the future and who tried to understand change, the field of Future
Studies itself--which tends to be very interdisciplinary --really
arose during World War II and in the postwar period since then.
Range
of Futurist Views and Perspectives
Within
the Futures field, there have always been a wide range of views
and perspectives from people who have come from a very wide range
of different disciplines and backgrounds and interests. Futurists
run a whole gamut of views between the following two poles, and
everything inbetween:
- "Doom
and Gloom" Futurists: so-called because they tend to focus
on current real world problems, without easy solutions (such
as the nuclear danger during the Cold War, or the continuing
population explosion, world hunger, depletion of fossil fuels
and other nonrenewable resources, and environmental preservation
and pollution) and project these trends into the future, showing
that "if current trends continue,...then the future will be
much worse than the present."
-
It
is important to note that even "Doom and Gloom" Futurists are
not totally pessimistic, however. Indeed, no futurist would
dedicate their whole life to studying change and the future
if they were totally pessimistic. The major reason for pointing
out negative trends and scenarios for the future is to alert
people to the potential problems ahead, so that we humans can
be informed and change our current policies so that a more desirable
future can be created.
-
Futurists
who create different scenarios of the future--from negative,
"doom and gloom" views, to most probable or likely views, to
positive, visionary views (an inbetween perspective, that acknowledges
all these possibilities for the world future, and which points
out that our actions and policies NOW will help to determine
which of these scenarios actually transpires in the future).
-
Positive,
Visionary, and Evolutionary Futurists: they focus more on
positively imaging the more desirable futures that we would
like to create; articulating the positive values that we would
like a future world to be based on; focusing on technological,
societal, and human potentials; tracking groups that are actually
trying to create such preferable futures in the world today;
and generally empowering people to see that we always have choices
(in what we think & feel, and in how we behave in the world),
and that we DO have the power to create a more desirable future
world by committing in the present to change what we are doing
NOW.
Characteristics
of a Futurist Perspective
While
Futurists themselves represent a wide range of backgrounds, interests,
and perspectives (as noted above), there are nonetheless certain
characteristics of a futurist perspective that most futurists would
agree upon, and which distinguish Future Studies as a field from
many others disciplines and fields of study. These characteristics
include:
- Seeing
Change as the Norm and It is Speeding Up
- Seeing
Events as Interrelated (within a Whole Systems Context),
not Separate and Unconnected.
- Taking
a Holistic, or Whole Systems Perspective in Looking at
Change
- Accepting
as a Premise that there are Many Alternative Futures.
- Distinguishing
between Possible, Probable, & Preferable Futures:
- Possible
Futures: anything (good or bad, probable or improbable)
that could happen in the future.
- Probable
Futures: what is most likely or probable to happen in
the future (based on extending past trends or developments
into the future in some way).
- Preferable
Futures: what is most desirable or preferable to happen
in the future.
- The
Goal is to make preferable or desirable futures more
probable, by visualizing clearly what we want to create
(including the values that we want a future world to be
based on), and then committing energy, resources, time,
and our lives to creating that future world.
- Another
Goal is to also note possible futures, that though
they might not be probable or likely, if they did occur,
would have a great impact on people's lives. We should thus
be aware of such possibilities.
- Helping
People Realize that there are always Consequences to
what we do (or don't do), and "If we always do what we've always
done, then we'll always get what we've always gotten."
- The Importance
of Ideas, Values, and Positive Visions in Creating a Better
World Future.
- Empowering
People to Choose and Act Responsibly and Consciously in
the Present, Because Those Actions WILL Help in Creating the
Future: helping people to realize that we are ALL creating the
future that we will be living and working in by what we think
and do every day of our lives, and that we thus always have
choices in what we do. In short, we CAN all make a difference,
and we need to all become conscious of this fact and then make
a commitment to do something--no matter how small it may seem--that
we feel could help to make this world a better place.
- Accepting
the Importance of Short, Medium, and Long-Range Planning:
In short, not leaving the future to chance, but proactively
trying to create the future that we would like to be living
in--for ourselves and our posterity.
Time
Periods for Studying the Future
There
are various time periods for studying the future, which were outlined
by Earl Joseph of the Minnesota World Future Society Chapter. These
periods are:
- Near
Term Future: up to one year from now.
- Short
Range Future: one to five years from now.
- Middle
Range Future: five to twenty years from now.
- Long
Range Future: twenty to fifty years from now.
- Far
Future: fifty plus years from now.
Most
individual people, as well as most businesses and governments, only
look ahead as much as four to five years in their planning (in politics
until the next election and in business through the next five years).
It is important to look further ahead, however, in a world undergoing
such rapid change today. Joseph stresses that we are creating the
world that we will be living in in five to twenty years from now
(the Middle Range Future) by what we are doing right now. Thus almost
anything can be created--'if" we have a vision of what we want to
create AND are also committed personally to that vision--in five
to twenty years from now.
It
is also important to remember that while past-present-& future
are all somehow interconnected, the only place from which to change
the future is in the NOW. The power for change resides in the present
moment, for that is the only place from which our thoughts or actions
can actually be changed.
Holistic/Systems
View of Our Place in the Universe (as Systems within Systems within
Systems)
While
it is common, especially in the West, to look at the universe and
world as being made up of separate, unconnected individuals and
things (which is especially characteristic of industrial-era, Newtonian
Physics thinking, as well), Future Studies as a field tends instead
to look at the universe and world as being made up of dynamically
changing, interdependent parts. The universe and world can thus
be seen as being made up of systems within systems within systems
within systems. Every system is in turn made up of smaller, interacting,
interdependent parts; and each of these parts is in turn another
system with its own interdependent, interacting parts.
One
could thus diagram these relationships as follows: [INSERT DIAGRAM]
Key
Subjects Studied by Futurists
While
futurists can study the future of anything and everything, and while
people who call themselves futurists often have a holistic, systems
approach that looks at connections and relationships between changes
in one area of life as these relate to changes in other areas of
life, there are nonetheless certain key subjects that futurists
tend to study a lot. These include:
-
The
Global Megacrisis Issue, including the Relationships Between:
- Global
Population Growth;
- Food
and World Hunger;
- Energy
Sources (Traditional, Nonrenewable Fossil Fuels & Alternative,
Renewable Energy Sources);
- Environmental
Pollution;
- Sustainable
Development; and
- Global
Climate Change (including Global Warming); and
- Other
Global Catastrophes.
- Global
Peace, Conflict, and War;
- The
End of the East-West Conflict and the Cold War;
- The
United Nations System and Global Governance;
- North-South
Relations, and the Increasing Gap (Both Between and Within
Countries) Between Rich and Poor. Today there are not only
economic haves and have nots; there are also technological
haves and have nots, and it is vitally important that everyone
who wants access to modern information age technologies
(and hence to information about our rapidly changing world)
can increasing gain such access.
- The
Emergence of Larger Regional Economic Blocs, including
the Asia/Pacific Region; the European Community (EC); the
North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA); and now other
regional blocs, including blocs of countries in the South.
In the 1980s, talk that the 21st Century would be the century
of the Pacific Rim (or Asia/Pacific), no doubt led Europeans
to move more quickly towards a formal European Community
(to compete), which in turn furthered development of NAFTA
in North America, and the emergence of other regional economic
blocs.
- Global
Economic Trends, including the emergence of a global
economy, as well as larger regional economic blocs (above),
and privatization of economies within countries, as well
as reactions to privatization (as is occurring in parts
of the former Soviet Union, such as Russia, where pulls
to both the right and left economically and politically
are occurring, along with reforms).
- Global
Political Trends, including democratization, and reactions
to that (especially by those who feel disenfranchised or
left out of all the modern changes happening in the world).
- Societal
Fragmentation, as the glue that held the industrial
age, centralized nation-state together breaks up and diversifies
and decentralizes society; as media diversifies and people
no longer all watch the same programs (except perhaps CNN);
and old beliefs and identities are challenged by rapid change
which creates anxiety in people, fear of change and the
future, and hence resistance to change, which sometimes
takes the form of fundamentalism, and an attempt to go back
to an earlier, so-called better, simpler, idealic time (which
never existed quite as people remember it). The only problem
is that one cannot go back, one can only go forward--while
hopefully also taking into the future what was best and
worth preserving from the past.
- Societal
Restructuring and Environmental Impacts of New Technologies,
including:
-
(A)
High Technologies, such as:
- Computers,
Telecommunications, Robotics--the First Stage of the
Information Revolution;
- The
new Interactive, Multimedia, Internet, World Wide Web,
Virtual Reality Technology Stage of the Information
Revolution;
- Genetic
Engineering, Recombinant DNA, and Gene Splicing;
- Space
Exploration, Industrialization, and Settlement; and
- Nanotechnology.
(B)
Appropriate or Intermediate Technologies, tied to Sustainable
Development, Living in Harmony with Nature, & Voluntary
Simplicity.
-
Workplace
Trends, including:
- New
Management Styles;
- Employment/Job
Trends;
- Technology
& Jobs;
- Diversity
and Women Working.
-
Educational/Learning
Trends;
-
New
Scientific Paradigms (or overarching worldviews);
-
Changing
Cultural Paradigms;
-
Global
Spiritual/Religious/Consciousness Traditions and Trends .
One
can also sometimes distinguished between futurists who are generalists
(and look at the interactions of changes in a number of diverse
areas) and futurists who deal more with change in a particular
area, such as the future of energy. In general, however, people
who choose to call themselves "futurists" tend to fit the former
definition, and even if futurists tend to specialize in particular
areas, they usually look at the area within the broader context
of numerous other changes happening in the world that impact
upon their particular area of interest.
Methodologies
for Studying Change and the Future
Since
the future has not yet happened, futurists have had to develop
a number of different methodologies for studying the future
and change that are different from traditional scientific methodologies
for studying the present and the past--on which data already
exists or can be generated. These methodologies range from quantitative,
left brain methods to visionary, creative, intuitive right brain
methods, and various combinations inbetween. It is important
to remember here that futurists believe in many alternative
futures--including probable, possible, and preferable futures.
Futurists are thus not only interested in looking at probable
futures (based on extending past trends and developments into
the future), but also at designing preferable alternative futures,
and showing how one can plan to get from the present state to
this more desirable future. A wide range of methodologies must
thus be employed to cover these very diverse different views
of the future. Some of the more prominent futures methodologies
include the following:
- Trend
Extrapolation: Projects past trends into the future,
for some given period of time. Assumes that the future will
in some way be an extension of past trends.
- Dynamic
Systems Analysis and Computer Modelling: Shows how various
variables in different areas interact with each other, within
a whole systems context, over time.
- Simulations
and Games: An attempt to take certain variables from
"reality" in some area and create a computer model or game
situation in which one can see how those variables might
interact with each other over time. Computers or humans
(as role players) or both can be involved. With computers,
humans can play "what if" games, where by making certain
choices, they can then see the consequences (in terms of
policy) that follow from those choices.
- Cross
Impact Analysis: Shows how choices
concerning one variable interact with choices concerning
another variable, providing a table of all possible combinations
of choices for each variable, and showing which combinations
are viable and which not.
- Technological
Forecasting: An attempt to forecast what technological
breakthroughs and developments are most likely to occur
in future and when they are likely to occur. In an age in
which technology is a major driving force for change, such
as today, keeping on top of the latest developments in technology
is essential--especially if one works in the high technology
area today.
- Technological
Impact Assessment: Looks at how new technologies are
likely to impact on society or the environment.
- Environmental
Impact Assessment: Looks at how new developments in
some area will impact on the environment. Often required
today, before new building plans can be approved.
- Social
Impact Assessment: Looks at how new developments in
some area will impact on society or on some community.
- Delphi
Polls of Experts--on Either Probable or Preferable Futures:
Poll experts in some area on what events they think are
most probable (or preferable) and when they are most likely
to occur; also the reasons for their answers. Summarize
results; give to experts; ask them to take poll again. If
they think other people's reasons for their answers are
better, they 'can' change their answer the second time;
or the third time they take the poll. Gives good results
re: experts views of what's likely to occur in future.
- Futures
Wheels: A group brainstorming technique to quickly determine
what some of the first, second, and third order consequences
might be, 'if' some event were to occur in the future--either
for the first time, or if something were to either decrease
or increase in value in future. Everything follows from
this event put in the center of the futures wheel.
- Scenarios:
A possible sequence of events that 'could' happen in the
future, based on certain initial conditions or assumptions
and what could follow from that. Futurists often construct
at least two or three different scenarios about the future
in some area, believing that different alternative futures
are possible. Examples include: best case, worst case, most
probable case, and other type scenarios.
- Science
Fiction: A possible story of what could happen in some
future social or world situation. Based on a scenario of
some kind (i.e., a possible sequence of events that 'could'
happen in the future) to which characters (with their own
personalities, even representing different alien species
in some cases) interact with that sequence of events over
time. Science Fiction has replaced cowboy movies as an important
genre of films today. Both dystopian and utopian science
fiction stories are possible. Science fiction does not claim
to predict the future, but sometimes good scientists (who
know their topic well) intuitively write about something
in science fiction that later becomes a reality. The most
famous case is Arthur C. Clark and the communications satellite,
which first appeared in a science fiction story.
- Intuition
& Intuitive Forecasting: A right brain 'a ha' experience,
in which you suddenly 'know' something to be true, or you
suddenly see patterns and relationships between things that
you didn't see before. Intuition is another way of knowing,
a "sixth sense," beyond our five senses. Intuition is important
in future studies because in a world in which change is
occurring so fast, and one does not always have time to
get all the information that one would like before one must
make a decision about what to do, one must often rely on
one's intuition to fill in the missing pieces and make a
decision. Intuition is also the source of creativity and
new ideas--in whatever type of work one is in. Good artists,
scientists, corporate executives, and leaders in any area
all tend to be intuitive. Our Western culture has not always
valued intuition, but its importance to creativity (a key
skill in the information age) is increasingly recognized,
and training programs seek to develop this skill in many
people today.
- Experiments
in Alternative Lifestyles: One of the best ways to find
out if alternative values can work is to try them out in
practice. Those new "fads" or alternative lifestyles that
work, and respond to some social need, often see themselves
becoming more mainstream with time.
- Social
Action to Change the Future: People
willing to join together with others to educate people on
some issue and to work for meaningful change often find
that their efforts 'can' effect and help to change the future.
- Short,
Medium, and Long Range Planning: Futurists look at planning
in short, medium, and long range terms. [See Earl Joseph's
five different time periods for looking at change and the
future.]
- Relevance
Trees: A way to map out the sequence of events, and
in what order, that are necessary to get from where you
are now to where you want to be as your end goal by some
future date.
- CERT/CPM
Analysis: A method for doing complex planning of great
numbers of people and subcontractors working on some large
project, such as the space program. Indeed, this methodology
was first developed for use by NASA in planning how to get
to the moon. One begins with a relevance tree, and then
adds layers of additional information. A way to map all
the different pathways that must be completed between where
one begins and the end goal one plans to achieve. One also
calculates, from all these pathways, what is the "critical
path" (which will take the longest and which one must not
get behind on, or the whole project will be delayed). Between
any two events along any given pathway, one usually adds
estimates of: time needed, number of people needed, budget
needed, etc. One can then calculate dates for the completion
of each event along a pathway; plug this all into a computer
and print all the pathways out, and use this to monitor
a project, once it begins, to be sure it stays on time,
on budget, etc. If a particular pathway--especially the
"critical path"--starts getting behind, one can then move
additional resources to that pathway, to correct the problem,
so the whole project stays on time.
Steps
in Designing an Alternative Future World
There
are perhaps unlimited potential versions of the steps that one
must go through to design an alternative future world. Marvin
Soroos came up with five stages,* to which we have added three
additional stages (the last three). We have also added different
future studies methodologies (from the previous list above)
which are relevant to each of these stages, as follows:
- Value
Specification
- Analysis
of the Present and Forecasting Future Developments
- Formulation
of Designs of Alternative Futures
- Evaluation
of the Designs of Alternative Futures
- Drafting
Transition Strategies (Of How One Gets From One's Starting
Place to Where One Wants to End Up)
- Implementation
of Policies
- Feedback
(On Whether Those Policies are Having the Effects One Planned
On, or Not)
- Adjustment
of Strategies and Policies, Based on Feedback
*
From Marvin Soroos, "A Methodological Overview of the Process
of Designing Alternative Future Worlds," in Planning Alternative
World Futures, Ed. by Beres and Targ
-
Key
Organizations Involved in the Study of the Future and Change
Two
of the most prominent international organizations devoted to
the study of the future include:
- The
World Future Society. Located in Bethesda, Maryland,
USA. Has members from around the world, especially from
North America.
- The
World Futures Studies Federation. Set up by Europeans
to not be North America dominated. A smaller group of professional
futurists from different countries around the world (East
and West, North and South).
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